Weather Balloon Gaps Could Skew Forecast Precision
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — Generally, National Weather Service locations nationwide release two weather balloons per day: one in the early morning and another in the late evening. Nevertheless, due to staff shortages at certain offices, these balloon releases have either decreased or stopped entirely, potentially affecting the precision of forecasting models.
Mike Hopkins, who leads the Surface and Upper Air Division at the National Weather Service, stated that the information gathered by weather balloons is vital for the computational models used by meteorologists to assist in generating forecasts.
"It's crucial for setting up the weather models, ensuring they have a solid foundation from which to predict future conditions," Hopkins explained to News 2.
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Hopkins mentioned that the balloons gather information about temperature, pressure, wind, and humidity across the entire troposphere. This layer of the atmosphere is where all our weather phenomena take place.
Hopkins mentioned that missing weather balloon launches could affect the models to some degree; however, there are multiple methods for gathering atmospheric data, such as utilizing information from aircraft.
“If there are gaps in certain areas of the country, it could pose an issue; however, we possess several methods for obtaining this information. Thus, these gaps can be filled and their impact minimized. You might observe some effects further along from where the data was absent,” explained Hopkins.
In March, The Associated Press reported In total, 11 National Weather Service locations have decreased or stopped their daily weather balloon releases.
The inconsistencies within the dataset might be responsible for several inaccuracies observed in the forecast model data.
Early Sunday morning, April 27, the radar displayed a significantly broader region of precipitation compared to the predictions made by the forecast models. Shown below are images taken at 5 a.m. from both the radar and the model data for Sunday, April 27.
By comparing the images provided, it becomes evident that the model data failed to include the showers and thunderstorms near Memphis as well as the showers in southeastern Missouri.
The incomplete weather balloon records can't solely be faulted for the model's subpar performance; however, as per Mike Hopkins, additional data enhances the accuracy of forecasting models.
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